Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey

Abstract

This study analyzes the regional power transitions for Turkey. The authors utilize both the Power Transitions Theory and the Human Development Theory to foresee Turkey’s future regional relations. The findings indicate that Turkey’s relations with the EU, Russia and Iran will be quite challenging. According to the forecasting, the probability of conflict between Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Iran will increase. Compared to Iran, Turkey’s propensity of conflict with Russia will be higher. Only in a scenario of joining the EU, Turkey’s probability of conflict with Russia and Iran decreases. EU membership stabilizes Turkey’s most challenging regional relationships. On the other hand, Human Development Dynamics demonstrate that Turkey is moving away from major European countries in terms of values, becoming less secular and more traditional. Our statistical models display that value convergence is a significant factor in integration, indicating that the likelihood of Turkey’s European integration is slim.

Keywords

Power Transitions, Human Development, Regional Hierarchy, Values, Integration.

Citation

Yeşilada, Birol Ali and Tanrıkulu, Osman Göktuğ, “Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey”, International Relations, Volume 13, No. 52, 2016, pp. 23-46.

Affiliations

• Birol Ali YEŞİLADA, Prof. Dr., Departments of Political Science, and International & Global Studies, Contemporary Turkish Studies Endowed Chair, Director of the Middle East Studies Center, Portland State University
• Osman Göktuğ TANRIKULU, PhD Candidate, Public Affairs & Policy, Hatfield School of Government, Portland State University