From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries

Abstract

Recent developments in the operationalization of mutual military buildups raise some questions about the findings of the quantitative literature on the association of mutual military buildups (MMB) and militarized dispute (MID) onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads. We use the novel data to evaluate that relationship, working within the Steps to War explanatory framework. The Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are puzzles for the framework, since on the one they have had a frequent presence of the Steps to War but have far fewer wars than we would expect. Our analysis indicates that despite that puzzling incongruity the Greece - Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are good fits for the Steps to War, except when it comes to the role of mutual military buildups. We find indicators that while the other factors of Steps to War have a positive combined association with MID onset, the inclusion of mutual military buildups renders such an association statistically insignificant. On the other hand, we do find indicators that mutual military buildups may contribute to the transition from Lesser to Severe Rivalry, as per the Steps to Rivalry. Finally, the dyads reach infection periods that make war more likely as per the Steps to War. But many expected wars do not take place. We posit two possible explanations for future research: deterrence, or major power managerial coordination.

Keywords

Rivalry, Mutual Military Buildups, MID Onset, Greece-Turkey, Greek-Turkish Rivalry

Citation

Ioannis Nioutsikos, Konstantinos Travlos, and Magdalini Daskalopoulou, “From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries”, Uluslararasi Iliskiler, Vol. 21, No 84, 2024, pp. 25-46. DOI:10.33458/uidergisi.1546705

Affiliations

Ioannis NIOUTSIKOS Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of the Peloponnese, Corinth E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0009-0009-1209-4407

Konstantinos TRAVLOS Assistant Professor, Department of History and Political Science - Perimeter College, Georgia State University, Atlanta & Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of the Peloponnese, Corinth E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0000-0003-1383-4197

Magdalini DASKALOPOULOU PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of the Peloponnese, Corinth E-Mail: [email protected]